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Mar 6

Stochastic CHAOS: Why Deterministic Inference Kills, and Distributional Variability Is the Heartbeat of Artifical Cognition

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

  • 10 authors
·
Jan 12 2

I-GLIDE: Input Groups for Latent Health Indicators in Degradation Estimation

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

orailix Orailix
·
Nov 26, 2025 2

Degradation Prediction of Semiconductor Lasers using Conditional Variational Autoencoder

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 5, 2022

"I May Not Have Articulated Myself Clearly": Diagnosing Dynamic Instability in LLM Reasoning at Inference Time

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 2 3

The Predicted-Updates Dynamic Model: Offline, Incremental, and Decremental to Fully Dynamic Transformations

We formulate the predicted-updates dynamic model, one of the first beyond-worst-case models for dynamic algorithms, which generalizes a large set of well-studied dynamic models including the offline dynamic, incremental, and decremental models to the fully dynamic setting when given predictions about the update times of the elements. In the most basic form of our model, we receive a set of predicted update times for all of the updates that occur over the event horizon. We give a novel framework that "lifts" offline divide-and-conquer algorithms into the fully dynamic setting with little overhead. Using this, we are able to interpolate between the offline and fully dynamic settings; when the ell_1 error of the prediction is linear in the number of updates, we achieve the offline runtime of the algorithm (up to poly log n factors). Provided a fully dynamic backstop algorithm, our algorithm will never do worse than the backstop algorithm regardless of the prediction error. Furthermore, our framework achieves a smooth linear trade-off between ell_1 error in the predictions and runtime. These correspond to the desiderata of consistency, robustness, and graceful degradation of the algorithms-with-predictions literature. We further extend our techniques to incremental and decremental settings, transforming algorithms in these settings when given predictions of only the deletion and insertion times, respectively. Our framework is general, and we apply it to obtain improved efficiency bounds over the state-of-the-art dynamic algorithms for a variety of problems including triconnectivity, planar digraph all pairs shortest paths, k-edge connectivity, and others, for prediction error of reasonable magnitude.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 17, 2023

AdaIR: Adaptive All-in-One Image Restoration via Frequency Mining and Modulation

In the image acquisition process, various forms of degradation, including noise, haze, and rain, are frequently introduced. These degradations typically arise from the inherent limitations of cameras or unfavorable ambient conditions. To recover clean images from degraded versions, numerous specialized restoration methods have been developed, each targeting a specific type of degradation. Recently, all-in-one algorithms have garnered significant attention by addressing different types of degradations within a single model without requiring prior information of the input degradation type. However, these methods purely operate in the spatial domain and do not delve into the distinct frequency variations inherent to different degradation types. To address this gap, we propose an adaptive all-in-one image restoration network based on frequency mining and modulation. Our approach is motivated by the observation that different degradation types impact the image content on different frequency subbands, thereby requiring different treatments for each restoration task. Specifically, we first mine low- and high-frequency information from the input features, guided by the adaptively decoupled spectra of the degraded image. The extracted features are then modulated by a bidirectional operator to facilitate interactions between different frequency components. Finally, the modulated features are merged into the original input for a progressively guided restoration. With this approach, the model achieves adaptive reconstruction by accentuating the informative frequency subbands according to different input degradations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance on different image restoration tasks, including denoising, dehazing, deraining, motion deblurring, and low-light image enhancement. Our code is available at https://github.com/c-yn/AdaIR.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 21, 2024 2

DORNet: A Degradation Oriented and Regularized Network for Blind Depth Super-Resolution

Recent RGB-guided depth super-resolution methods have achieved impressive performance under the assumption of fixed and known degradation (e.g., bicubic downsampling). However, in real-world scenarios, captured depth data often suffer from unconventional and unknown degradation due to sensor limitations and complex imaging environments (e.g., low reflective surfaces, varying illumination). Consequently, the performance of these methods significantly declines when real-world degradation deviate from their assumptions. In this paper, we propose the Degradation Oriented and Regularized Network (DORNet), a novel framework designed to adaptively address unknown degradation in real-world scenes through implicit degradation representations. Our approach begins with the development of a self-supervised degradation learning strategy, which models the degradation representations of low-resolution depth data using routing selection-based degradation regularization. To facilitate effective RGB-D fusion, we further introduce a degradation-oriented feature transformation module that selectively propagates RGB content into the depth data based on the learned degradation priors. Extensive experimental results on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superiority of our DORNet in handling unknown degradation, outperforming existing methods. The code is available at https://github.com/yanzq95/DORNet.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 15, 2024

LLMs Can Get "Brain Rot"!

We propose and test the LLM Brain Rot Hypothesis: continual exposure to junk web text induces lasting cognitive decline in large language models (LLMs). To causally isolate data quality, we run controlled experiments on real Twitter/X corpora, constructing junk and reversely controlled datasets via two orthogonal operationalizations: M1 (engagement degree) and M2 (semantic quality), with matched token scale and training operations across conditions. Contrary to the control group, continual pre-training of 4 LLMs on the junk dataset causes non-trivial declines (Hedges' g>0.3) on reasoning, long-context understanding, safety, and inflating "dark traits" (e.g., psychopathy, narcissism). The gradual mixtures of junk and control datasets also yield dose-response cognition decay: for example, under M1, ARC-Challenge with Chain Of Thoughts drops 74.9 rightarrow 57.2 and RULER-CWE 84.4 rightarrow 52.3 as junk ratio rises from 0% to 100%. Error forensics reveal several key insights. First, we identify thought-skipping as the primary lesion: models increasingly truncate or skip reasoning chains, explaining most of the error growth. Second, partial but incomplete healing is observed: scaling instruction tuning and clean data pre-training improve the declined cognition yet cannot restore baseline capability, suggesting persistent representational drift rather than format mismatch. Finally, we discover that the popularity, a non-semantic metric, of a tweet is a better indicator of the Brain Rot effect than the length in M1. Together, the results provide significant, multi-perspective evidence that data quality is a causal driver of LLM capability decay, reframing curation for continual pretraining as a training-time safety problem and motivating routine "cognitive health checks" for deployed LLMs.

GenDeg: Diffusion-Based Degradation Synthesis for Generalizable All-in-One Image Restoration

Deep learning-based models for All-In-One Image Restoration (AIOR) have achieved significant advancements in recent years. However, their practical applicability is limited by poor generalization to samples outside the training distribution. This limitation arises primarily from insufficient diversity in degradation variations and scenes within existing datasets, resulting in inadequate representations of real-world scenarios. Additionally, capturing large-scale real-world paired data for degradations such as haze, low-light, and raindrops is often cumbersome and sometimes infeasible. In this paper, we leverage the generative capabilities of latent diffusion models to synthesize high-quality degraded images from their clean counterparts. Specifically, we introduce GenDeg, a degradation and intensity-aware conditional diffusion model capable of producing diverse degradation patterns on clean images. Using GenDeg, we synthesize over 550k samples across six degradation types: haze, rain, snow, motion blur, low-light, and raindrops. These generated samples are integrated with existing datasets to form the GenDS dataset, comprising over 750k samples. Our experiments reveal that image restoration models trained on the GenDS dataset exhibit significant improvements in out-of-distribution performance compared to those trained solely on existing datasets. Furthermore, we provide comprehensive analyses on the implications of diffusion model-based synthetic degradations for AIOR. The code will be made publicly available.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 26, 2024

Designing a Practical Degradation Model for Deep Blind Image Super-Resolution

It is widely acknowledged that single image super-resolution (SISR) methods would not perform well if the assumed degradation model deviates from those in real images. Although several degradation models take additional factors into consideration, such as blur, they are still not effective enough to cover the diverse degradations of real images. To address this issue, this paper proposes to design a more complex but practical degradation model that consists of randomly shuffled blur, downsampling and noise degradations. Specifically, the blur is approximated by two convolutions with isotropic and anisotropic Gaussian kernels; the downsampling is randomly chosen from nearest, bilinear and bicubic interpolations; the noise is synthesized by adding Gaussian noise with different noise levels, adopting JPEG compression with different quality factors, and generating processed camera sensor noise via reverse-forward camera image signal processing (ISP) pipeline model and RAW image noise model. To verify the effectiveness of the new degradation model, we have trained a deep blind ESRGAN super-resolver and then applied it to super-resolve both synthetic and real images with diverse degradations. The experimental results demonstrate that the new degradation model can help to significantly improve the practicability of deep super-resolvers, thus providing a powerful alternative solution for real SISR applications.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 25, 2021

From HNSW to Information-Theoretic Binarization: Rethinking the Architecture of Scalable Vector Search

Modern semantic search and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems rely predominantly on in-memory approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) indexes over high-precision floating-point vectors, resulting in escalating operational cost and inherent trade-offs between latency, throughput, and retrieval accuracy. This paper analyzes the architectural limitations of the dominant "HNSW + float32 + cosine similarity" stack and evaluates existing cost-reduction strategies, including storage disaggregation and lossy vector quantization, which inevitably sacrifice either performance or accuracy. We introduce and empirically evaluate an alternative information-theoretic architecture based on maximally informative binarization (MIB), efficient bitwise distance metrics, and an information-theoretic scoring (ITS) mechanism. Unlike conventional ANN systems, this approach enables exhaustive search over compact binary representations, allowing deterministic retrieval and eliminating accuracy degradation under high query concurrency. Using the MAIR benchmark across 14 datasets and 10,038 queries, we compare this architecture against Elasticsearch, Pinecone, PGVector, and Qdrant. Results demonstrate retrieval quality comparable to full-precision systems, while achieving substantially lower latency and maintaining constant throughput at high request rates. We show that this architectural shift enables a truly serverless, cost-per-query deployment model, challenging the necessity of large in-memory ANN indexes for high-quality semantic search.

moorcheh Moorcheh.ai
·
Dec 16, 2025

Solving Inverse Problems with FLAIR

Flow-based latent generative models such as Stable Diffusion 3 are able to generate images with remarkable quality, even enabling photorealistic text-to-image generation. Their impressive performance suggests that these models should also constitute powerful priors for inverse imaging problems, but that approach has not yet led to comparable fidelity. There are several key obstacles: (i) the encoding into a lower-dimensional latent space makes the underlying (forward) mapping non-linear; (ii) the data likelihood term is usually intractable; and (iii) learned generative models struggle to recover rare, atypical data modes during inference. We present FLAIR, a novel training free variational framework that leverages flow-based generative models as a prior for inverse problems. To that end, we introduce a variational objective for flow matching that is agnostic to the type of degradation, and combine it with deterministic trajectory adjustments to recover atypical modes. To enforce exact consistency with the observed data, we decouple the optimization of the data fidelity and regularization terms. Moreover, we introduce a time-dependent calibration scheme in which the strength of the regularization is modulated according to off-line accuracy estimates. Results on standard imaging benchmarks demonstrate that FLAIR consistently outperforms existing diffusion- and flow-based methods in terms of reconstruction quality and sample diversity.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 3, 2025 2

Textual Prompt Guided Image Restoration

Image restoration has always been a cutting-edge topic in the academic and industrial fields of computer vision. Since degradation signals are often random and diverse, "all-in-one" models that can do blind image restoration have been concerned in recent years. Early works require training specialized headers and tails to handle each degradation of concern, which are manually cumbersome. Recent works focus on learning visual prompts from data distribution to identify degradation type. However, the prompts employed in most of models are non-text, lacking sufficient emphasis on the importance of human-in-the-loop. In this paper, an effective textual prompt guided image restoration model has been proposed. In this model, task-specific BERT is fine-tuned to accurately understand user's instructions and generating textual prompt guidance. Depth-wise multi-head transposed attentions and gated convolution modules are designed to bridge the gap between textual prompts and visual features. The proposed model has innovatively introduced semantic prompts into low-level visual domain. It highlights the potential to provide a natural, precise, and controllable way to perform image restoration tasks. Extensive experiments have been done on public denoising, dehazing and deraining datasets. The experiment results demonstrate that, compared with popular state-of-the-art methods, the proposed model can obtain much more superior performance, achieving accurate recognition and removal of degradation without increasing model's complexity. Related source codes and data will be publicly available on github site https://github.com/MoTong-AI-studio/TextPromptIR.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 11, 2023

Beyond Degradation Conditions: All-in-One Image Restoration via HOG Transformers

All-in-one image restoration, which aims to address diverse degradations within a unified framework, is critical for practical applications. However, existing methods rely on predicting and integrating degradation conditions, which can misactivate degradation-specific features in complex scenarios, limiting their restoration performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel all-in-one image restoration framework guided by Histograms of Oriented Gradients (HOG), named HOGformer. By leveraging the degradation-discriminative capability of HOG descriptors, HOGformer employs a dynamic self-attention mechanism that adaptively attends to long-range spatial dependencies based on degradation-aware HOG cues. To enhance the degradation sensitivity of attention inputs, we design a HOG-guided local dynamic-range convolution module that captures long-range degradation similarities while maintaining awareness of global structural information. Furthermore, we propose a dynamic interaction feed-forward module, efficiently increasing the model capacity to adapt to different degradations through channel-spatial interactions. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks, including adverse weather and natural degradations, demonstrate that HOGformer achieves state-of-the-art performance and generalizes effectively to complex real-world degradations. Code is available at https://github.com/Fire-friend/HOGformer.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 12, 2025

Contextual Bandits in Payment Processing: Non-uniform Exploration and Supervised Learning at Adyen

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 30, 2024

The Devil Behind Moltbook: Anthropic Safety is Always Vanishing in Self-Evolving AI Societies

The emergence of multi-agent systems built from large language models (LLMs) offers a promising paradigm for scalable collective intelligence and self-evolution. Ideally, such systems would achieve continuous self-improvement in a fully closed loop while maintaining robust safety alignment--a combination we term the self-evolution trilemma. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that an agent society satisfying continuous self-evolution, complete isolation, and safety invariance is impossible. Drawing on an information-theoretic framework, we formalize safety as the divergence degree from anthropic value distributions. We theoretically demonstrate that isolated self-evolution induces statistical blind spots, leading to the irreversible degradation of the system's safety alignment. Empirical and qualitative results from an open-ended agent community (Moltbook) and two closed self-evolving systems reveal phenomena that align with our theoretical prediction of inevitable safety erosion. We further propose several solution directions to alleviate the identified safety concern. Our work establishes a fundamental limit on the self-evolving AI societies and shifts the discourse from symptom-driven safety patches to a principled understanding of intrinsic dynamical risks, highlighting the need for external oversight or novel safety-preserving mechanisms.

  • 13 authors
·
Feb 10 9

TraceCoder: A Trace-Driven Multi-Agent Framework for Automated Debugging of LLM-Generated Code

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate code with subtle but critical bugs, especially for complex tasks. Existing automated repair methods typically rely on superficial pass/fail signals, offering limited visibility into program behavior and hindering precise error localization. In addition, without a way to learn from prior failures, repair processes often fall into repetitive and inefficient cycles. To overcome these challenges, we present TraceCoder, a collaborative multi-agent framework that emulates the observe-analyze-repair process of human experts. The framework first instruments the code with diagnostic probes to capture fine-grained runtime traces, enabling deep insight into its internal execution. It then conducts causal analysis on these traces to accurately identify the root cause of the failure. This process is further enhanced by a novel Historical Lesson Learning Mechanism (HLLM), which distills insights from prior failed repair attempts to inform subsequent correction strategies and prevent recurrence of similar mistakes. To ensure stable convergence, a Rollback Mechanism enforces that each repair iteration constitutes a strict improvement toward the correct solution. Comprehensive experiments across multiple benchmarks show that TraceCoder achieves up to a 34.43\% relative improvement in Pass@1 accuracy over existing advanced baselines. Ablation studies verify the significance of each system component, with the iterative repair process alone contributing a 65.61\% relative gain in accuracy. Furthermore, TraceCoder significantly outperforms leading iterative methods in terms of both accuracy and cost-efficiency.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 6

Early warning signals: The charted and uncharted territories

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

  • 3 authors
·
May 29, 2013

A Machine Learning-based Framework for Predictive Maintenance of Semiconductor Laser for Optical Communication

Semiconductor lasers, one of the key components for optical communication systems, have been rapidly evolving to meet the requirements of next generation optical networks with respect to high speed, low power consumption, small form factor etc. However, these demands have brought severe challenges to the semiconductor laser reliability. Therefore, a great deal of attention has been devoted to improving it and thereby ensuring reliable transmission. In this paper, a predictive maintenance framework using machine learning techniques is proposed for real-time heath monitoring and prognosis of semiconductor laser and thus enhancing its reliability. The proposed approach is composed of three stages: i) real-time performance degradation prediction, ii) degradation detection, and iii) remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. First of all, an attention based gated recurrent unit (GRU) model is adopted for real-time prediction of performance degradation. Then, a convolutional autoencoder is used to detect the degradation or abnormal behavior of a laser, given the predicted degradation performance values. Once an abnormal state is detected, a RUL prediction model based on attention-based deep learning is utilized. Afterwards, the estimated RUL is input for decision making and maintenance planning. The proposed framework is validated using experimental data derived from accelerated aging tests conducted for semiconductor tunable lasers. The proposed approach achieves a very good degradation performance prediction capability with a small root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.01, a good anomaly detection accuracy of 94.24% and a better RUL estimation capability compared to the existing ML-based laser RUL prediction models.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 5, 2022

Mechanistic Interpretability of RNNs emulating Hidden Markov Models

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide a powerful approach in neuroscience to infer latent dynamics in neural populations and to generate hypotheses about the neural computations underlying behavior. However, past work has focused on relatively simple, input-driven, and largely deterministic behaviors - little is known about the mechanisms that would allow RNNs to generate the richer, spontaneous, and potentially stochastic behaviors observed in natural settings. Modeling with Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) has revealed a segmentation of natural behaviors into discrete latent states with stochastic transitions between them, a type of dynamics that may appear at odds with the continuous state spaces implemented by RNNs. Here we first show that RNNs can replicate HMM emission statistics and then reverse-engineer the trained networks to uncover the mechanisms they implement. In the absence of inputs, the activity of trained RNNs collapses towards a single fixed point. When driven by stochastic input, trajectories instead exhibit noise-sustained dynamics along closed orbits. Rotation along these orbits modulates the emission probabilities and is governed by transitions between regions of slow, noise-driven dynamics connected by fast, deterministic transitions. The trained RNNs develop highly structured connectivity, with a small set of "kick neurons" initiating transitions between these regions. This mechanism emerges during training as the network shifts into a regime of stochastic resonance, enabling it to perform probabilistic computations. Analyses across multiple HMM architectures - fully connected, cyclic, and linear-chain - reveal that this solution generalizes through the modular reuse of the same dynamical motif, suggesting a compositional principle by which RNNs can emulate complex discrete latent dynamics.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 29, 2025

STORI: A Benchmark and Taxonomy for Stochastic Environments

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 1, 2025

Understanding Warmup-Stable-Decay Learning Rates: A River Valley Loss Landscape Perspective

Training language models currently requires pre-determining a fixed compute budget because the typical cosine learning rate schedule depends on the total number of steps. In contrast, the Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedule uses a constant learning rate to produce a main branch of iterates that can in principle continue indefinitely without a pre-specified compute budget. Then, given any compute budget, one can branch out from the main branch at a proper time with a rapidly decaying learning rate to produce a strong model. Empirically, WSD generates a non-traditional loss curve: the loss remains elevated during the stable phase but sharply declines during the decay phase. Towards explaining this phenomenon, we conjecture that pretraining loss exhibits a river valley landscape, which resembles a deep valley with a river at its bottom. Under this assumption, we show that during the stable phase, the iterate undergoes large oscillations due to the high learning rate, yet it progresses swiftly along the river. During the decay phase, the rapidly dropping learning rate minimizes the iterate's oscillations, moving it closer to the river and revealing true optimization progress. Therefore, the sustained high learning rate phase and fast decaying phase are responsible for progress in the river and the mountain directions respectively, and are both critical. Our analysis predicts phenomenons consistent with empirical observations and shows that this landscape can emerge from pretraining on a simple bi-gram dataset. Inspired by the theory, we introduce WSD-S, a variant of WSD that reuses previous checkpoints' decay phases and keeps only one main branch, where we resume from a decayed checkpoint. WSD-S empirically outperforms WSD and Cyclic-Cosine in obtaining multiple language model checkpoints across various compute budgets in a single run for parameters scaling from 0.1B to 1.2B.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 7, 2024

Quantum Reservoir Computing for Corrosion Prediction in Aerospace: A Hybrid Approach for Enhanced Material Degradation Forecasting

The prediction of material degradation is an important problem to solve in many industries. Environmental conditions, such as humidity and temperature, are important drivers of degradation processes, with corrosion being one of the most prominent ones. Quantum machine learning is a promising research field but suffers from well known deficits such as barren plateaus and measurement overheads. To address this problem, recent research has examined quantum reservoir computing to address time-series prediction tasks. Although a promising idea, developing circuits that are expressive enough while respecting the limited depths available on current devices is challenging. In classical reservoir computing, the onion echo state network model (ESN) [https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-72359-9_9] was introduced to increase the interpretability of the representation structure of the embeddings. This onion ESN model utilizes a concatenation of smaller reservoirs that describe different time scales by covering different regions of the eigenvalue spectrum. Here, we use the same idea in the realm of quantum reservoir computing by simultaneously evolving smaller quantum reservoirs to better capture all the relevant time-scales while keeping the circuit depth small. We do this by modifying the rotation angles which we show alters the eigenvalues of the quantum evolution, but also note that modifying the number of mid-circuit measurements accomplishes the same goals of changing the long-term or short-term memory. This onion QRC outperforms a simple model and a single classical reservoir for predicting the degradation of aluminum alloys in different environmental conditions. By combining the onion QRC with an additional classical reservoir layer, the prediction accuracy is further improved.

  • 8 authors
·
May 28, 2025 1

Autoregressive Hidden Markov Models with partial knowledge on latent space applied to aero-engines prognostics

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

  • 4 authors
·
May 1, 2021

Scaling Laws and Interpretability of Learning from Repeated Data

Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the model is exposed to repeated data at the sentence, paragraph, or document level. Some works have reported substantial negative performance effects of this repeated data. In this paper we attempt to study repeated data systematically and to understand its effects mechanistically. To do this, we train a family of models where most of the data is unique but a small fraction of it is repeated many times. We find a strong double descent phenomenon, in which repeated data can lead test loss to increase midway through training. A predictable range of repetition frequency leads to surprisingly severe degradation in performance. For instance, performance of an 800M parameter model can be degraded to that of a 2x smaller model (400M params) by repeating 0.1% of the data 100 times, despite the other 90% of the training tokens remaining unique. We suspect there is a range in the middle where the data can be memorized and doing so consumes a large fraction of the model's capacity, and this may be where the peak of degradation occurs. Finally, we connect these observations to recent mechanistic interpretability work - attempting to reverse engineer the detailed computations performed by the model - by showing that data repetition disproportionately damages copying and internal structures associated with generalization, such as induction heads, providing a possible mechanism for the shift from generalization to memorization. Taken together, these results provide a hypothesis for why repeating a relatively small fraction of data in large language models could lead to disproportionately large harms to performance.

  • 18 authors
·
May 20, 2022

A study of a deterministic model for meningitis epidemic

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 31, 2023

VFMF: World Modeling by Forecasting Vision Foundation Model Features

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 11, 2025

Diffusion Beats Autoregressive: An Evaluation of Compositional Generation in Text-to-Image Models

Text-to-image (T2I) generative models, such as Stable Diffusion and DALL-E, have shown remarkable proficiency in producing high-quality, realistic, and natural images from textual descriptions. However, these models sometimes fail to accurately capture all the details specified in the input prompts, particularly concerning entities, attributes, and spatial relationships. This issue becomes more pronounced when the prompt contains novel or complex compositions, leading to what are known as compositional generation failure modes. Recently, a new open-source diffusion-based T2I model, FLUX, has been introduced, demonstrating strong performance in high-quality image generation. Additionally, autoregressive T2I models like LlamaGen have claimed competitive visual quality performance compared to diffusion-based models. In this study, we evaluate the compositional generation capabilities of these newly introduced models against established models using the T2I-CompBench benchmark. Our findings reveal that LlamaGen, as a vanilla autoregressive model, is not yet on par with state-of-the-art diffusion models for compositional generation tasks under the same criteria, such as model size and inference time. On the other hand, the open-source diffusion-based model FLUX exhibits compositional generation capabilities comparable to the state-of-the-art closed-source model DALL-E3.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 30, 2024

Idioms: Neural Decompilation With Joint Code and Type Prediction

Decompilers are important tools for reverse engineers that help them analyze software at a higher level of abstraction than assembly. Unfortunately, because compilation is lossy, deterministic decompilers produce code that is missing many of the details that make source code readable in the first place, like variable names and types. Neural decompilers, on the other hand, offer the ability to statistically fill in these details. Existing work in neural decompilation, however, suffers from substantial drawbacks that limits its ability to handle real code: it is unable to handle user-defined composite types, which are essential to fully specifying many functions' semantics, or require test cases. In this work, we introduce a new training process to finetune any LLM into a neural decompiler capable of generating the appropriate user-defined types alongside the decompilation. We introduce a new dataset, Realtype, that includes substantially more complicated and realistic types than existing neural decompilation benchmarks. Motivated by the intuition that different parts of data structures can be operated upon by different parts of the program, we show that interprocedural context can help improve neural decompilers' ability to handle user-defined types. We show that our training process yields state-of-the-art results in neural decompilation. We also publicly release the Idioms series of finetuned neural decompilation models in support of open science. In summary, we identify the need for joint code and type prediction, show that it is a hard problem, and take the first steps towards solving it.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 6, 2025

ERTACache: Error Rectification and Timesteps Adjustment for Efficient Diffusion

Diffusion models suffer from substantial computational overhead due to their inherently iterative inference process. While feature caching offers a promising acceleration strategy by reusing intermediate outputs across timesteps, naive reuse often incurs noticeable quality degradation. In this work, we formally analyze the cumulative error introduced by caching and decompose it into two principal components: feature shift error, caused by inaccuracies in cached outputs, and step amplification error, which arises from error propagation under fixed timestep schedules. To address these issues, we propose ERTACache, a principled caching framework that jointly rectifies both error types. Our method employs an offline residual profiling stage to identify reusable steps, dynamically adjusts integration intervals via a trajectory-aware correction coefficient, and analytically approximates cache-induced errors through a closed-form residual linearization model. Together, these components enable accurate and efficient sampling under aggressive cache reuse. Extensive experiments across standard image and video generation benchmarks show that ERTACache achieves up to 2x inference speedup while consistently preserving or even improving visual quality. Notably, on the state-of-the-art Wan2.1 video diffusion model, ERTACache delivers 2x acceleration with minimal VBench degradation, effectively maintaining baseline fidelity while significantly improving efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/bytedance/ERTACache.

  • 9 authors
·
Aug 27, 2025